Jason Travis' 2008 Oscar Predictions
From Mark: Who is Jason Travis, you might be asking. Well, he's a friend and an Oscar fanatic (Seriously, give him a year, he'll tell you what won Best Picture; give him a year from the past five-ten years, and he'll tell you all the nominees in any major category). It's occasionally scary. Anyway, he wanted to put in his two cents on this year's awards, and I figured, why the hell not?
BEST PICTURE: No Country for Old Men
A pretty solid choice. I can't see anything but Juno or Michael Clayton taking this spot. The former has the most box-office, but lacks that crucial editing nomination. The latter has all the necessary nominations, but lacks precursors. No Country for Old Men, while not a winner at the Golden Globes, does have the Producers, Writers and Directors Guild backing it as well as the prestigious SAG award and multiple critics' awards. A solid box-office also.
BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie, Away from Her
I know that late surges are brewing for Ellen Page (Roger Ebert (ed.: And me)), but I still think Christie's recent SAG win shows strong support. But watch out for Cotillard. She has immense critical backing and is also "young and hot," something that older voters seem to chime to (e.g., Halle Berry, Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron). But since Helen Mirren won last year, perhaps the tides have turned for older women to win. Blanchett and Linney should be happy they're invited to the party, thank you!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Only Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild has real possibilities here. I would vow for Tom Wilkinson, since he hasn't won... but then again, neither has Bardem.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
The hardest category of the night. I'm going with Golden Globe and National Society of Film Critics winner Blanchett, whose puzzling nod for lead actress in Elizabeth: Golden Age leads me to think voters really adore her. If she wins, it will be on merit alone, as I'm Not There could be too gimmicky for some voters. I refuse to accept Ruby Dee's winning but might have to learn to. But she's in an unloved film for five minutes, unlike Judi Dench who was in a Best Picture frontrunner and had three more minutes to boast. Amy Ryan is also strong meat, especially with her critical backing and druggie role (Voters love a female gone bad). Watch out for Tilda Swinton--last minute buzz is rising.
BEST DIRECTOR: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
History says that the majority of winners of the DGA will go on to win the Oscar, though Rob Marshall (Chicago) did lose to Roman Polanski (The Pianist) in 2002. That being said, the Coens only worry would be Tony Gilroy or Paul Thomas Anderson.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Ratatouille
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: No Country for Old Men
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Juno
BEST ART DIRECTION: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: No Country for Old Men
BEST SOUND MIXING: Transformers
BEST SOUND EDITING: Ratatouille
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Atonement
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Falling Slowly" from Once
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Atonement
BEST EDITING: No Country for Old Men
BEST MAKEUP: La Vie en Rose
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Sicko
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